Vancouver Real Estate Market Report & Sellers' Delusion index


Blog by Arnold Shuchat | January 12th, 2014


Updated Sellers' Delusion Index for Vancouver, 10 months Ending December 31, 2013


Here are the Vancouver numbers (East and West sides) for my SDI which includes data from the last 10 months. As you go through this data, bear in mind that the lower the SDI number, the stronger and "less disappointed" sellers are.  A high SDI indicates frustration of the listing process while a low one indicates transactions instead of frustration. There are 2 tables below, 1 for detached properties and the other for attached ones.

Although there are significant variations from month to month, I like to compare recent data to that of the strong part of 2011 so that we can see where we have been and where we are now.  The SDI is a simple calculation which adds up the expired and terminated listings for a given month and divides the total by the number of sales in that period.  When it is low, it means that a greater percentage of listings have resulted in a transaction.  When it is high, we have a scenario where the property has not sold for some reason and the mandate and the sellers have been frustrated. This is most likely a result of an unreasonable price expectation for the period.

It is important to note that December as a month is a statistical aberration. It represents a natural point in time when sellers will either terminate a listing or will have agreed to have listed it until that point in the first place.  As such the SDI ratio is unusually high for December annually.  What is important to take away is the annual or seasonal trend and the market from a seller's sentiment point of view is far less frustrated and more realistic than it has been in either of the two preceeding years with the exception of the market highs we saw in early 2011.


Seller's Delusion Index-A Review of Vancouver
Detached Properties
    December     November  
  2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011
# of Sales 169 109 135 245 145 221
# of Expireds 182 317 219 92 144 117
# of Terminated 61 116 115 115 151 168
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to            
Sales (SDI)            
             
Month of Dec 1.44 3.97 2.47      
Month of Nov 0.84 2.03 1.29      
Month of Oct 0.71 2.06 1.14      
Month of Sept 0.80 1.71 0.92      
Month of Aug 0.87 2.44 0.88      
Month of July 0.98 1.80 0.68      
Month of June 0.84 1.65 0.60      
Month of May 0.80 1.21 0.39
Month of April 0.86 1.01 0.44
Month of March 0.98 0.58 0.28
 
  Attached Properties
Dec Nov
2013.00 2012.00 2011.00 2013 2012 2011
# of Sales 284.00 249.00 271.00 479 364 494
# of Expireds 419.00 584.00 430.00 121 204 172
# of Terminated 122.00 261.00 250.00 226 290 320
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to
Sales (SDI)
 
Month of Dec 1.90 3.39 2.51
Month of Nov 0.72 1.36 1.00
Month of Oct 0.76 1.58 0.96
Month of Sept 0.93 1.81 1.16
Month of Aug 0.74 1.74 1.11
Month of July 0.92 1.56 0.95      
Month of June 0.71 1.25 0.87      
Month of May 1.01 1.09 0.73      
Month of April 0.86 0.68 0.52
Month of March 0.86 0.56 0.42



If you, your friends, family or people you care about are thinking of buying or selling a property, please
email me at: ashuchat@shuchatgroup.com or call me at: 778-227-7325 to discuss
a detailed purchasing or marketing plan which could help save thousands of dollars.