Vancouver Real Estate Market Report & Seller's Delusion index


Blog by Arnold Shuchat | December 1st, 2013


If one wanted a weather vane to see where the real estate market winds are blowing, this would be as close to it as one could get.  I designed the Seller's Delusion Index to track sellers' frustration over time, with the hypotheses being that the more expired and terminated listings there are as a ratio to sales, the greater the downward pressure on real estate prices.  A seller has two options: cut his price or take it off the market.  One results in a sale and the other a terminated listing.

As an historical measure, (Terminated + Expired listings) divided by number of sales in or about February of 2011 an accepted market high point, were running close to historic lows of about 27% depending on property type.  At the worst recent time since then, they were running around 244%. That is akin to saying that when things are "hot" sellers had a 1 in 3 chance of being frustrated, whereas when things cooled down, they were 9 times more likely to be frustrated.

As one can see from the chart below, sellers' expectation are being more fully met now and than in 2012 and the trend is shifting towards a more balanced position than the more buyer favourable market we saw in 2012.  This table supercedes all previous ones as the sufficient time lapse following the months' end assures a more accurate set of numbers to allow for complete reporting of sales, terminated and expired listings. 

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Seller's Delusion Index-A Review of Vancouver
Detached Properties
    October     Sept     August  
  2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011
# of Sales 275 186 249 309 189 256 264 143 257
# of Expireds 105 198 111 113 158 78 120 186 89
# of Terminated 89 185 172 135 166 157 109 163 137
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to                  
Sales (SDI)                  
Month of Oct 0.71 2.06 1.14            
Month of Sept 0.8 1.71 0.92      
Month of Aug 0.87 2.44 0.88      
Month of July 0.977 1.8 0.68      
Month of June 0.84 1.65 0.6      
Month of May 0.8 1.21 0.394
Month of April 0.86 1.007 0.438
Month of March 0.975 0.579 0.281
 
  Attached Properties
Oct Sept Aug
2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011
# of Sales 539 386 533 553 367 510 497 358 471
# of Expireds 171 239 198 197 334 226 189 263 198
# of Terminated 237 374 312 320 333 364 178 363 325
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to
Sales (SDI)
Month of Oct 0.76 1.58 0.96
Month of Sept 0.93 1.81 1.16
Month of Aug 0.74 1.74 1.11
Month of July 0.92 1.56 0.954      
Month of June 0.71 1.25 0.874      
Month of May 1.01 1.09 0.725      
Month of April 0.859 0.683 0.518
Month of March 0.864 0.562 0.421

If you know anyone who can benefit from my services, who is looking to either purchase or sell a property, please feel free to forward my contact information to them and we will treat them like family members....(the ones that you like!)- 778-227-7325