Vancouver Real Estate Market Report


Blog by Arnold Shuchat | February 15th, 2014


Sellers' Delusion Index for Vancouver, 11 months Ending January 2014


Here are the Vancouver numbers (East and West sides) for my SDI which includes data from the last 11 months. As you go through this data, bear in mind that the lower the SDI number, the stronger and "less disappointed" sellers are.  A high SDI indicates frustration of the listing process while a low one indicates transactions instead of frustration. There are 2 tables below, 1 for detached properties and the other for attached ones.

Although there are significant variations from month to month, I like to compare recent data to that of the strong part of 2011 so that we can see where we have been and where we are now.  The SDI is a simple calculation which adds up the expired and terminated listings for a given month and divides the total by the number of sales in that period.  When it is low, it means that a greater percentage of listings have resulted in a transaction.  When it is high, we have a scenario where the property has not sold for some reason and the mandate and the sellers have been frustrated. This is most likely a result of an unreasonable price expectation for the period.

It is important to note that December as a month is a statistical aberration. It represents a natural point in time when sellers will either terminate a listing or will have agreed to have listed it until that point in the first place.  As such the SDI ratio is unusually high for December annually.  What is important to take away is the annual or seasonal trend and the market from a seller's sentiment point of view is far less frustrated and more realistic than it has been in either of the two preceeding years with the exception of the market highs we saw in early 2011.

No matter what your personal opinion is as to the direction of the Vancouver real estate market, looking at the numbers below, there is no doubt that our market has rebalanced over the last two years; firstly towards an increased seller level of frustration from 2011 to the Fall of 2012 and from that point towards a more realistic set of expectations on the part of sellers.  Although Seller sentiment has recovered somewhat, it has not quite reverted to the point where it was at the beginning of 2011.

Seller's Delusion Index-A Review of Vancouver
Detached Properties
  January  
  2014 2013 2012 2011
# of Sales 209 151 224 306
# of Expireds 65 69 73 33
# of Terminated 65 104 96 70
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to        
Sales (SDI)        
Jan 0.62 1.15 0.75 0.34
Dec   1.44 3.97 2.47
Nov   0.84 2.03 1.29
Oct   0.71 2.06 1.14
Sept   0.80 1.71 0.92
Aug   0.87 2.44 0.88
July   0.98 1.80 0.68
June   0.84 1.65 0.60
May 0.80 1.21 0.39
April 0.86 1.01 0.44
March 0.98 0.58 0.28
 
  Attached Properties
Jan
2014 2013 2012 2011
# of Sales 426 362 397 521
# of Expireds 110 176 130 114
# of Terminated 117 242 225 180
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to
Sales (SDI)
Jan 0.53 1.15 0.89 0.56
Dec 1.90 3.39 2.51
Nov 0.72 1.36 1.00
Oct 0.76 1.58 0.96
Sept 0.93 1.81 1.16
Aug 0.74 1.74 1.11
July   0.92 1.56 0.95
June   0.71 1.25 0.87
May   1.01 1.09 0.73
April 0.86 0.68 0.52
March 0.86 0.56 0.42