Vancouver Real Estate Market Report


Blog by Arnold Shuchat | October 2nd, 2013


Vancouver Real Estate Market Report: Seller's Delusion Index Revisited

7 months ending September 30, 2013-Vancouver West and East Sides

Here are the Vancouver numbers for my SDI which includes data from the last 7 months.  It should be noted that we are only at October 2, and that there are very likely to be unreported sales from September, so that the data presented here for that month might overstate the SDI.  In other words things are likely better than they look for September 2013. As you go through this data, bear in mind that the lower the SDI number, the stronger and "less disappointed" sellers are.  A high SDI indicates frustration of the listing process while a low one indicates transactions instead of frustration.

Although there are significant variations from month to month, I like to compare recent data to that of the strong part of 2011 so that we can see where we have been and where we are now.  The SDI is a simple calculation which adds up the expired and terminated listings for a given month and divides the total by the number of sales in that period.  When it is low, it means that a greater percentage of listings have resulted in a transaction.  When it is high, we have a scenario where the property has not sold for some reason and the mandate and the sellers have been frustrated. This is most likely a result of an unreasonable price expectation for the period.

What is the important take-away from these 2 tables today is that the best we have seen was in 2011 for detached properties with an SDI of .28 and the worst has been around August 2012 for the months reported giving us an average of the extremes of: 1.47 and that no matter how you slice it, we are far better off where we are now, (assuming you are not hoping for a crash) than where we were just over a year ago. Sales have recovered nicely from the lows of the last 2 years, but more importantly, sellers have come to grips with the market realities and are less apt to get as greedy as things were just 2 years ago.

Detached Properties
    Sept     August  
  2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011
# of Sales 213 189 256 259 143 257
# of Expireds 121 158 78 120 186 89
# of Terminated 87 166 157 87 163 137
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to            
Sales (SDI)            
Month of Sept 0.98 1.71 0.92      
Month of Aug 0.8 2.44 0.88      
Month of July 1.21 1.8 0.68      
Month of June 0.84 1.65 0.6      
Month of May 0.8 1.21 0.394
Month of April 0.86 1.007 0.438
Month of March 0.975 0.579 0.281
 
  Attached Properties
Sept Aug
2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011
# of Sales 336 367 510 497 358 471
# of Expireds 206 334 226 189 263 198
# of Terminated 213 333 364 178 363 325
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to
Sales (SDI)
Month of Sept 1.24 1.81 1.16
Month of Aug 0.74 1.74 1.11
Month of July 0.92 1.56 0.954      
Month of June 0.71 1.25 0.874      
Month of May 1.01 1.09 0.725      
Month of April 0.859 0.683 0.518
Month of March 0.864 0.562 0.421