Richmond Real Estate Market Report With Sellers' Delusion Index


Blog by Arnold Shuchat | October 2nd, 2013


Updated Sellers' Delusion Index for Richmond, 7 months Ending September 30, 2013

Here are the Richmond numbers for my SDI which includes data from the last 7 months.  It should be noted that we are only at October 2, and that there are very likely to be unreported sales from September, so that the data presented here for that month might overstate the SDI.  In other words things are likely better than they look for September 2013. As you go through this data, bear in mind that the lower the SDI number, the stronger and "less disappointed" sellers are.  A high SDI indicates frustration of the listing process while a low one indicates transactions instead of frustration.

Although there are significant variations from month to month, I like to compare recent data to that of the strong part of 2011 so that we can see where we have been and where we are now.  The SDI is a simple calculation which adds up the expired and terminated listings for a given month and divides the total by the number of sales in that period.  When it is low, it means that a greater percentage of listings have resulted in a transaction.  When it is high, we have a scenario where the property has not sold for some reason and the mandate and the sellers have been frustrated. This is most likely a result of an unreasonable price expectation for the period.

What is the important take-away from these 2 tables today is that the best we have seen was in 2011 for detached properties with an SDI of .276 (attached) and the worst has been around 3.34 (Detached)September 2012 for the months reported giving us an average of the extremes of: 1.8 and that no matter how you slice it, we are far better off where we are now, (assuming you are not hoping for a crash) than where we were just over a year ago. Sales have recovered nicely from the lows of the last 2 years, but more importantly, sellers have come to grips with the market realities and are less apt to get as greedy as things were just 2 years ago. However, if you compare the numbers here against the Vancouver numbers on the previous Blogpost, we can see that as far as Richmond is concerned, sellers' expectations have not yet been rectified by the effluxion of time and Richmond has not yet adjusted as well as Vancouver.

 
Seller's Delusion Index-Richmond
Detached Properties
    Sept     August    
  2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011 2013
# of Sales 84 64 101 130 67 102 95
# of Expireds 83 138 94 81 105 90 83
# of Terminated 37 76 81 47 86 108 27
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to              
Sales (SDI)              
Sept 1.42 3.34 1.73        
Aug 0.98 2.85 1.94        
July 1.16 3.6 1.32      
June 1.19 3.22 1.37      
May 1.77 2.28 1.13      
April 1.21 1.33 0.829      
March 1.81 1.34 0.338      
 
  Attached Properties
  Sept     August    
2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011 2013
# of Sales 119 125 165 108 125 159 171
# of Expireds 100 162 145 75 144 106 110
# of Terminated 54 117 134 56 107 99 47
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to  
Sales (SDI)
& terminateds to
Sales (SDI)
Sept 1.29 1.43 1.69
Aug 1.21 2 1.29
July 0.92 1.65 0.92        
June 0.84 1.38 1.06        
May 0.91 1.36 0.567        
April 0.92 1.099 0.522        
March 0.886 0.667 0.276