Below I have charted a similar 14 day period from April 4-18 to the last 14 days ending June 20 of this year to see how the frequency distribution of sold units compares in these two periods.
A few years ago, I remember getting something in the mail from another realtor claiming "over 100 units sold so far this year...." and for sure as I recall, it was well before June. I haven't heard from him lately.... While the numbers are up and so is to a very limited extent, the activity, we can't exactly pull off the turniquet!
As an analogy, have you ever driven south, and you are on I-95 coming down the mountain on the approach California? After driving for a real long time downhill, it is actually difficult to tell what normal, level driving is like, or whether you are still going downhill. So it is with the real estate market. We have experienced a major uphill freight train in real estate prices over the last 12 years such that it is hard to tell what normal is. Certainly, the decade prior to 2011 was not normal.
During such a market as it enters a period of frenzy, all kinds of people buy for different reasons. But in a more normal market, more people buy because they just need a place to live.
I believe that now and for the near term, those will be the buyers, and normal demographics will account for the bulk of the real estate transactions. Sure, we will have to deal with the downloading of the speculators' inventory. But as we move forward, look for more normality in the numbers and an absorption rate far higher in the lower price ranges than in the luxury, high end market.
|PRICE OF||# OF UNITS|
|Property||14 days||14 days|
|Sales||Ending 18/4||Ending 20/6|
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