The Seller's Delusion Index-July 2013As can be seen from the table below, the SDI is calculated as the sum of expired listings in a period plus terminated listings in that period divided by the number of units sold in that same period. The higher the ratio, the more "out of whack" sellers are with buyers. To put this into perspective, in February 2011 33.8% of all listings were frustrated by a termination or an expiry of roughly 1 in 3. A similar period in 2013 showed a 535% increase in this frustration index. At some point, when these statistics show such a large change, I figure that somebody's expectations are out of whack. Since the customer is always right and the buyers can do whatever they want with their money, I attribute these erroneous expectations to the sellers. Hence, the term "Seller's Delusion Index". How are we doing as compared to the fading memory of February 2011? For one thing, June and July of 2013 reflected more "realism" than the numbers did, even back in the same periods in 2011! In summary, with a lowering of the SDI, things appear to be less "out of whack" and that is a good thing for both buyers and sellers. See below, the data makes good material for the bears to chew on! (Next up, Vancouver...Feel free to Retweet these reports).
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July
2013 Seller's Delusion Index-Richmond |
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Detached Properties |
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July |
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June |
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May |
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April |
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2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
| # of Sales |
95 |
57 |
115 |
121 |
69 |
155 |
68 |
96 |
146 |
88 |
111 |
140 |
| # of Expireds |
83 |
117 |
75 |
97 |
142 |
82 |
79 |
112 |
79 |
59 |
82 |
46 |
| # of Terminated |
27 |
88 |
77 |
47 |
80 |
131 |
42 |
107 |
86 |
48 |
66 |
70 |
| Ratio of Expireds |
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| & terminateds to |
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| Sales (SDI) |
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| Month of July |
1.16 |
3.6 |
1.32 |
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| Month of June |
1.19 |
3.22 |
1.37 |
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| Month of May |
1.77 |
2.28 |
1.13 |
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| Month of April |
1.21 |
1.33 |
0.829 |
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| Month of March |
1.81 |
1.34 |
0.338 |
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Attached Properties |
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July |
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June |
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May |
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April |
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2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
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171 |
130 |
198 |
194 |
178 |
221 |
143 |
166 |
245 |
150 |
181 |
230 |
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110 |
125 |
79 |
116 |
139 |
100 |
76 |
98 |
46 |
90 |
94 |
37 |
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47 |
90 |
104 |
46 |
106 |
108 |
54 |
127 |
93 |
48 |
105 |
83 |
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| Ratio of
Expireds |
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| & terminateds to |
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| Sales (SDI) |
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| Month of July |
0.92 |
1.65 |
0.92 |
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| Month of June |
0.84 |
1.38 |
1.06 |
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| Month of May |
0.91 |
1.36 |
0.567 |
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| Month of April |
0.92 |
1.099 |
0.522 |
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| Month of March |
0.886 |
0.667 |
0.276 |
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