Richmond Real Estate Market Report


Blog by Arnold Shuchat | March 8th, 2014


Sellers' Delusion Index for Richmond, 12 months Ending February 28, 2014


Here are the Richmond numbers for my SDI which includes data from the last 12 months. As you go through this data, bear in mind that the lower the SDI number, the stronger and "less disappointed" sellers are.  A high SDI indicates frustration of the listing process while a low one indicates transactions instead of frustration. There are 2 tables below, 1 for detached properties and the other for attached ones.

Although there are significant variations from month to month, I like to compare recent data to that of the strong part of 2011 so that we can see where we have been and where we are now.  The SDI is a simple calculation which adds up the expired and terminated listings for a given month and divides the total by the number of sales in that period.  When it is low, it means that a greater percentage of listings have resulted in a transaction.  When it is high, we have a scenario where the property has not sold for some reason and the mandate and the sellers have been frustrated. This is most likely a result of an unreasonable price expectation for the period.

For February 2014, for Detached Properties, the SDI is the 3rd lowest number than it has been over the last 38 months since I started tracking it.   It appears that although sales are not nearly what they were in the beginning of 2011, sellers' frustration levles are far more muted than they have been for about 3 years. For attached properties there is a greater fluctuation and not as marked reduction in this metric.

Sellers' Delusion Index
Detached Properties
    Feb    
  2014 2013 2012 2011
# of Sales 115 93 109 260
# of Expireds 44 58 49 17
# of Terminated 16 36 50 27
 
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to        
Sales (SDI)        
Feb 0.52 1.01 0.91 0.17
Jan 0.71 1.57 0.92 0.25
Dec 2.57 6.16 4.32
Nov 1.07 2.96 1.55
Oct 1.3 2.96 1.5
Sept 1.42 3.34 1.73
Aug 0.98 2.85 1.94
July 1.16 3.6 1.32
June 1.19 3.22 1.37
May 1.77 2.28 1.13
April 1.21 1.33 0.829
March 1.81 1.34 0.338
 
  Attached Properties
  Feb    
2014 2013 2012 2011
# of Sales 144 146 212 320
# of Expireds 56 55 47 28
# of Terminated 45 57 53 51
 
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to
Sales (SDI)
Feb 0.70 0.77 0.47 0.25
Jan 0.72 1.16 1.03 0.36
Dec 2.23 4.19 3.59
Nov 0.99 1.61 1.59
Oct 0.694 1.88 1.3
Sept 1.29 1.43 1.69
Aug 1.21 2 1.29
July   0.92 1.65 0.92
June   0.84 1.38 1.06
May   0.91 1.36 0.567
April   0.92 1.099 0.522
March   0.886 0.667 0.276