Richmond Real Estate Market Report


Blog by Arnold Shuchat | February 15th, 2014


Sellers' Delusion Index for Vancouver, 11 months Ending January 31, 2014


Here are the Richmond numbers for my SDI which includes data from the last 11 months. As you go through this data, bear in mind that the lower the SDI number, the stronger and "less disappointed" sellers are.  A high SDI indicates frustration of the listing process while a low one indicates transactions instead of frustration. There are 2 tables below, 1 for detached properties and the other for attached ones.

Although there are significant variations from month to month, I like to compare recent data to that of the strong part of 2011 so that we can see where we have been and where we are now.  The SDI is a simple calculation which adds up the expired and terminated listings for a given month and divides the total by the number of sales in that period.  When it is low, it means that a greater percentage of listings have resulted in a transaction.  When it is high, we have a scenario where the property has not sold for some reason and the mandate and the sellers have been frustrated. This is most likely a result of an unreasonable price expectation for the period.

As I posted last month, it is important to note that December as a month is a statistical aberration. It represents a natural point in time when sellers will either terminate a listing or will have agreed to have listed it until that point in the first place.  As such the SDI ratio is unusually high for December annually.  What is important to take away is the annual or seasonal trend and the market from a seller's sentiment point of view is far less frustrated and more realistic than it has been in either of the two preceeding years with the exception of the market highs we saw in early 2011.

For January 2014, for Detached Properties, the SDI is the lowest it has been over the last 3 years since I started tracking it.  At 71%, it is still much higher than the lows of January 2011.  The takeaway here is that for themost part, it is lower than at any time since April of 2011 for detached properties.  For attached properties there is a greater fluctuation and not as marked reduction in this metric.

Seller's Delusion Index-Richmond
Detached Properties
      Jan  
  2014 2013 2012 2011
# of Sales 118 74 107 210
# of Expireds 42 56 46 23
# of Terminated 42 60 52 30
 
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to        
Sales (SDI)        
Jan 0.71 1.57 0.92 0.25
Dec 2.57 6.16 4.32
Nov 1.07 2.96 1.55
Oct 1.3 2.96 1.5
Sept 1.42 3.34 1.73
Aug 0.98 2.85 1.94
July 1.16 3.6 1.32
June 1.19 3.22 1.37
May 1.77 2.28 1.13
April 1.21 1.33 0.829
March 1.81 1.34 0.338
 
  Attached Properties
Jan
2014 2013 2012 2011
# of Sales 163 128 152 258
# of Expireds 71 80 79 45
# of Terminated 46 68 78 47
 
Ratio of Expireds
& terminateds to
Sales (SDI)
Jan 0.72 1.16 1.03 0.36
Dec 2.23 4.19 3.59
Nov 0.99 1.61 1.59
Oct 0.694 1.88 1.3
Sept 1.29 1.43 1.69
Aug 1.21 2 1.29
July   0.92 1.65 0.92
June   0.84 1.38 1.06
May   0.91 1.36 0.567
April   0.92 1.099 0.522
March   0.886 0.667 0.276

If you, your friends, family or people you care about are thinking of buying or selling a property, please
email me at: ashuchat@shuchatgroup.com or call me at: 778-227-7325 to discuss
a detailed purchasing or marketing plan which could help save thousands of dollars.