BC Population Growth: A Predictable Cycle?


Blog by Arnold Shuchat | September 27th, 2013


BC Population Growth to Q2 2013
I found this report on another blog called "Housing Analysis BC".  Source is cited below.

"BC Stats 
released its quarterly population estimates yesterday. Population growth consists of the following bulk components:

  • Natural increase (births - deaths)
  • Net interprovincial migration
  • Net international migration (including permanent and non-permanent residents (NPRs))
So let's look at how recent quarters look in a historical context, here graphed since 1961 to show longer-term trends (there is seasonality so quarters are best compared to each other, also do not integrate these graphs, the total population is periodically adjusted during census counts). 4 quarter rolling averages are shown.

Since 2008, net NPRs have been contributing a level of population growth approaching that of the natural increase. From datasets "Total entries of foreign workers by province or territory and urban area" and "Total entries of foreign students by province or territory and urban area", the following data on foreign worker student, and humanitarian components of NPR entries in BC:
2012 Temporary Foreign Workers (TFW), Student, and Humanitarian Entries in Vancouver and BC
Vancouver BC % Vancouver of BC
TFW 19315 49511 39%
Student 14677 26647 55%
Humanitarian 394 1175 34%
Total In 34386 77333 44%
Total Out* - 69491 -
Net - 7842 -
% net of total in - 10% -
* estimate by subtracting Net from Total In.
The influx of NPRs to BC was around 77,000 in 2012, however the outflux was around 69,000. According to CANSIM 051-0020 there were 151,637 NPRs in BC as of January 1, 2013, which approximately aligns with integrating historical net NPRs from the population growth estimates. NPRs have comprised 19% of the province's total population growth since the beginning of 2008.

What seems interesting to me was an appararent 12-14 year pattern from trough to trough which repeated itself since the '60s.
From the looks of it, from a purely technical viewpoint, one could opine that were history to repeat itself the "Net" number should just about be starting to increase again.
The question is, what has caused the cycle and whether such factor(s) are in place to see it repeat at this time.
 

The blog can be found at:  http://housing-analysis.blogspot.ca/2013/09/bc-population-growth-to-q2-2013.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+HousingAnalysis+(Housing+Analysis)&utm_content=My+Yahoo